The past few days, a number of articles have hit the web, which have as their main subject the attempt to predict emerging threats for 2016. Moreover, numerous webinars and discussion panels are being organized, mainly to express an opinion on these claimed predictions. I would like to share with the readers of my blog that this “prediction” frenzy is happening for a very specific underlying reason.
The information security industry and more specifically the vendors, attempt to shift their value proposition once more in 2016, and make it the year of “predicting” attacks, initially from detection to prevention, and now to prediction. This is going to be the InfoSec buzzword for this coming year.
Detection > Prevention > Prediction
It is sometimes annoying to see that some industry professionals (especially tied to specific vendors, as a publicity stand for quick profit) discuss/present such ideas as novel, when in reality researchers, especially in academia, have worked upon the evolution of threat assessment, and detection, many years back. Several PhD theses have been written on how intrusion detection will evolve, and even more on how unification of networkevents will address the problem of managing the vast amounts of information generated (later called “Big Data”). Also, how prevention can be effective across different geographic locations, how will this lead to “Threat Intelligence” needs, by sharing attack patterns across heterogeneous systems in real-time (including IoT), and what are the realistic expectations for predicting cyber threats, based on the abstraction of network events, and the behavioural analysis of cyber-criminals, and trends in cybercrime.